Is the Iranian Regime About to Collapse? by Karim Sadjadpour & Jack A. Goldstone
This is an instructive read on the Iran protests and the conditions that have led to them:
History suggests that regimes collapse not from single failures but from a fatal confluence of stressors. One of us, Jack, has written at length about the five specific conditions necessary for a revolution to succeed: a fiscal crisis, divided elites, a diverse oppositional coalition, a convincing narrative of resistance, and a favorable international environment. This winter, for the first time since 1979, Iran checks nearly all five boxes.